By TheNuts - Oct 01, 2024
NFL Betting Shuffle: Super Bowl odds drastically change and underdogs gain ground
The biggest impact on these teams' prospects of traveling to New Orleans in February has come from early season outcomes.
The NFL season's first month has produced a number of unexpected outcomes, with strong underdogs winning handily. Super Bowl odds have changed as a result throughout the league. Longshots like the Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are living up to their lesser expectations, while preseason favorites like the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs have retained their elite status.
Since the first kickoff, these teams' Super Bowl fortunes have changed dramatically, either for the better or for the worse or both.
Minnesota Vikings (between +1400 and +8000)
The Sam Darnold-led Vikings, whose over/under win total at the beginning of the season was 6.5 on
Bovada, have remarkably gone unbeaten over four weeks after a turbulent offseason and a summer marked by injuries to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy and wide receiver Jordan Addison. Highlights of Minnesota's ascent through the ranks of the NFL include victories over the division rival Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, the defending NFC champion San Francisco 49ers, and the Houston Texans, winners of the AFC North last season.
Even more astounding than the Vikings' improbable start has been Darnold's play. FanDuel offers him the fifth-best odds at +1100 from essentially off the board as an MVP consideration, which would make one bettor very happy.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores' ingenious strategies have proven effective against excellent quarterbacks Brock Purdy, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love. With Pat Jones II leading the Vikings' pass rush with five sacks, Minnesota is only giving up 14.8 points per game.
Washington Commanders (+10000 to +25000 to +5000)
Jayden Daniels, hello. Against the Bengals on Monday night in Week 3, the rookie signal-caller made a big impression by throwing for 254 yards and rushing for 39. While many may have anticipated a letdown from him and his squad, he went on to pass an Arizona Cardinals club that was favored by 3.5 points at most
sportsbooks, amassing 280 yards in total and continuing to display incredible passing accuracy.
It is not unexpected that he has become the front-runner to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The current Heisman Trophy winner is now receiving -120 odds at
Bovada after beginning the season at +400 and behind first-round choice Caleb Williams.
In Week 1, the defense struggled at Tampa Bay as Daniels was still getting used to his surroundings. The Commanders had ample reason to believe they wouldn't get very far in 2024, let alone to the Super Bowl. Washington's defense is still a big question mark, but things are looking up for them—mostly because of their rookie quarterback. And who knows, maybe sooner than anyone thought.
Denver Broncos (+10000 to +50000 to +15000)
Sean Payton's team began their journey close to the bottom, sank much below, and is currently climbing back up. Denver is now 2-2 after victories over the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New York Jets in back-to-back games. The defense, which is rated third in terms of points allowed per game (13.8), second in terms of total yards allowed (256.5), and fourth in terms of opponents' passing yards per match (146), has been the team's mainstay.
The Broncos' victory total trajectory also illustrates how inconsistent their season has been thus far. It opened at 6.5, dropped to 5.5, and is now back at its Week 1 value, with
Bovada over boosted to -145. That undoubtedly reflects the acceptance of this small recovery by the populace. Bo Nix, a rookie quarterback, has made few errors this season (no interceptions in Week 4), despite only managing a meager 60 throwing yards in the rain when playing against the Jets.
Cleveland Browns (+3500 to +15000)
This team's current state in 2024 can be summed up in one word: awful. Cleveland entered the game with realistic expectations, projecting an 8.5 win total and betting +500 to win the AFC North. After four games and three dismal games, the Browns are a complete mess, especially at quarterback. For the team, Deshaun Watson is a $230 million liability. He and the offense as a whole have played horribly, which has caused Cleveland's victory total to drop to 5.5 and its division title odds to +4000.
A long list of errors plagued the team during Sunday's defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders: Watson's interception, the botched extra point, and Amari Cooper's 82-yard touchdown reception that was halted by a holding penalty. The fact that Cleveland's roster is severely damaged due to player injuries doesn't help either. Thus, the uphill climb may soon get harder with a schedule that includes the Philadelphia Eagles, Washington, the Los Angeles Chargers, a desperate Cincinnati club, and the Baltimore Ravens.
New York Giants (+10000 to +50000)
First, the wonderful news. Malik Nabers, a wide receiver, is real. The LSU freshman is runner-up behind Daniels for Offensive freshman of the Year at +275 on
BetOnline.ag after two 100-yard games and three touchdown receptions.
Let's get to the positive. With Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux as their pass-rushing tandem, New York's defense has been comparatively strong. This team has done a good job of holding the Commanders, Browns, and Dallas Cowboys accountable.
Now for the negative. Daniel Jones's advancement is not visible. With the exception of Nabers, the offensive is mired in a bind. Nabers also had a concussion last week, which he is currently recovering from. Expectations never were that high for the Giants, as indicated in their season-opening Super Bowl number. These days, every week sees a weekly increase in their odds: winning the NFC East is at +5000 on
BetOnline.ag, while entering the playoffs is at +1100.